South Carolina GOP Primary Heats Up as Trump Endorses Evette

A recent Trafalgar Group poll underscores a shifting landscape in South Carolina’s Republican gubernatorial primary. Representative Nancy Mace finds herself trailing several competitors, amplified by President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette. This endorsement is a potential game-changer, given Trump’s influence among the state’s GOP voters.

Poll Insights and Campaign Reactions

The poll, conducted from June 2 to June 4, presents a competitive race with no clear leader. Mace’s campaign acknowledged the survey findings but dismissed them as unreliable. A spokesperson remarked, “This is what we call a suppression poll,” suggesting grassroots support is waning for Evette.

Since launching her gubernatorial bid last August, Mace initially led the field. However, the race has evolved into a tight competition. According to South Carolina election law, candidates must achieve over 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff election.

Prediction Market Observations

Based on prediction markets like Kalshi, Mace has slim odds of securing the nomination, with a less than 4% chance. Evette leads with 68%, while Wilson has 27%. Similarly, Polymarket shows Mace’s probability dropped from 45% in December to under 5%, whereas Evette surged from 30% to 68% after Trump’s endorsement.

Epstein Files Controversy

The dynamics between Mace and Trump have changed since their 2024 alliance. The rift stems from Mace’s demand for the release of classified documents on Jeffrey Epstein, contrasting with Republican contenders who avoided the subject. Her openness marks a break from past mutual support, challenging Trump’s choices on sensitive political matters.

Mace addressed this shift on X, stating her refusal to sacrifice values for endorsements. She emphasized the need for transparency, asserting South Carolina deserves a governor accountable to its populace rather than established entities.

Broader Congressional Impact

Mace is not alone in facing political repercussions. Other lawmakers, including Republican Representative Thomas Massie, grappled with fallout over the Epstein files. Massie commended Mace and others for their stand, though they paid a political price. Massie himself lost his primary amid opposition to Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein.

Marjorie Taylor Greene chose not to seek reelection, citing her divide with Trump, while Lauren Boebert faces potential challenges after backing Massie.

Upcoming Primary Events

South Carolina’s primary is scheduled for June 9, with a possibility of a runoff if no candidate surpasses 50% of the votes. As Trump’s endorsement and other late developments impact the race, contenders will likely intensify their campaigns. With many voters still undecided, these final days are crucial for shaping the election’s outcome.