Los Angeles Mayoral Race Tightens: Bass, Raman, and Pratt in a Close Contest

A recent poll by UC Berkeley and the Los Angeles Times reveals a competitive race for the position of Los Angeles mayor. Karen Bass, Nithya Raman, and reality TV star Spencer Pratt are nearly tied as the June primary approaches. The poll shows Bass with 26%, closely followed by Raman at 25%, and Pratt with 22%. The close numbers place them all within the margin of error, leaving no clear front-runner.

This indicates a significant change from earlier polls that showed Bass in a more commanding lead, highlighting the potential impact of voter turnout on advancing to the November runoff. Prediction markets still favor Bass, with Polymarket at about 71% and Kalshi close behind at 69%, well ahead of Pratt and Raman.

Doug Herman, a campaign adviser for Bass, expressed confidence, stating, “It’s a choice between a Mayor who reduced homelessness and hired more officers, a Councilwoman who voted repeatedly to allow encampments near schools, and to shrink LAPD, or a reality TV villain. We will win.”

Survey Insights

The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies conducted the poll from May 19–24, involving 1,913 registered voters, with 1,351 identified as likely voters. The margin of error stands at approximately 3 percentage points. While Bass holds a slight edge, experts describe the race as statistically insignificant. Different candidates appeal to distinct voter coalitions, and turnout remains crucial to the final outcome.

Undecided voters have sharply decreased, from 26% in March to only 10% in the latest poll. This trend suggests late deciders are leaning more towards the challengers than the incumbent.

Factors Influencing the Race

The race is strongly affected by issues like homelessness, housing affordability, and public safety. Additionally, the 2025 Palisades Fire and ongoing Sandy Fire have intensified the focus on disaster response. Pratt lost his home in the Palisades fire, and his campaign criticizes Bass’ handling of such crises. Raman has also criticized Bass’ policies on homelessness and governance.

Pratt has utilized AI-generated videos to enhance his campaign’s digital reach, engaging online audiences, though the effect on voter behavior is still uncertain.

Comparing With Past Polls

Earlier Emerson College polling showed Bass with a clearer lead at 30%, compared to Pratt’s 22% and Raman’s 19%. In March, UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times polling placed Bass at 25%, Raman at 17%, and Pratt at 14%, with high numbers of undecided voters.

As of early May, Tavern Research reflected a tighter field, putting Bass at 22%, Pratt at 18%, and Raman at 16%. The UCLA Luskin poll from March confirmed Bass leading at 25%, with Pratt and Raman in the teens and a large segment undecided. The shifting support underscores the evolving dynamics as voters finalize their choices.

Prediction Markets Overview

Prediction markets provide real-time expectations, indicating a strong likelihood of Bass advancing to the runoff. Polymarket trades indicate Bass at 71%, with Pratt at 25% and Raman at 6%. Kalshi, meanwhile, shows Raman at a more competitive 17%, with Bass at 62% and Pratt at 22%.

The general consensus points toward Bass securing a spot in the runoff, yet conflicting with polls over the closeness of the race for the second position.

Stephanie Pratt’s Support for Her Brother

Spencer Pratt’s sister, Stephanie Pratt, recently expressed her support more publicly, reversing her earlier skepticism. In an interview, she praised his efforts in addressing fire disasters, revealing a mix of policy debates and celebrity influence shaping this mayoral contest.

What Lies Ahead

The top two candidates from the primary will advance to a November runoff unless one candidate secures a majority vote in June. With the support of the leading candidates becoming more consolidated and fewer undecided voters left, the election may hinge on the turnout as voting day approaches.