Does Trump Want to Lose the Midterms?

The president appears indifferent about the potential loss of Congressional control by his party. Ezra Klein discusses President Trump’s midterm strategy with Republican strategist Liam Donovan on The Ezra Klein Show. This episode explores Trump’s political maneuvers and the possible paths Democrats might take to victory.

This is an edited transcript of “The Ezra Klein Show.” You can listen to the episode wherever you get your podcasts.

Ezra Klein proposes that President Trump is not actively trying to win the midterm elections. While not intentionally losing, he does not seem to prioritize these elections. Instead, Trump is focused on controlling the Republican Party. This control ensures his power base remains intact well beyond his presidency.

Klein describes his view as a hypothesis, underpinned by testable predictions. At this point in his second term, Trump is more unpopular than most modern predecessors. With midterms approaching in under six months, a loss of the House and possibly the Senate looms. Yet, Trump’s actions reflect a different focus.

Instead of moving to the political center to address voter concerns, Trump continues controversial actions. He announced a $1.8 billion fund, seemingly intended to support Jan. 6 rioters. He endorsed embattled Ken Paxton over John Cornyn in Texas, increasing Democrats’ chances to claim a Senate seat. Trump has also targeted Republicans like Thomas Massie and Bill Cassidy who opposed him.

An archival clip of Trump highlights his priorities:

Reporter: Mr. President, to what extent are Americans’ financial situations motivating you to make a deal? Trump: Not even a little bit. The only thing that matters when I’m talking about Iran — they can’t have a nuclear weapon. I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation. I don’t think about anybody. I think about one thing: We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That’s all.

This statement emphasizes Trump’s focus on issues other than economic concerns, presenting Democratic ad makers with valuable material. Trump’s concentrated interest lies in party control, not Congressional victories. He invests efforts only if these tasks further his grip on the Republican Party. Otherwise, his attention lies elsewhere.