Xavier Becerra Leads California Gubernatorial Primary

Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra is leading the California gubernatorial primary race, according to a new poll released shortly before Tuesday’s primary election. Democrats Tom Steyer and Republican Steve Hilton are in a close contest for second place.

California employs a top-two primary system where all candidates appear on one ballot, independent of party affiliation. The top two candidates move on to the general election, even if both belong to the same party. The state has consistently voted Democratic in statewide elections. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won California by about 20 points against President Donald Trump in the 2024 election. Arnold Schwarzenegger was the last Republican elected as governor, leaving office in 2011.

Current Candidates

Current Governor Gavin Newsom cannot run due to term limits, bringing national attention to the race. Leading candidates include:

• Xavier Becerra: Democrat, former HHS Secretary under President Joe Biden.
• Chad Bianco: Republican, Riverside County sheriff.
• Steve Hilton: Republican, political commentator and former adviser to UK Prime Minister David Cameron.
• Matt Mahan: Democrat, San Jose mayor.
• Katie Porter: Democrat, former Congress representative for Orange County.
• Tom Steyer: Democratic businessman.
• Tony Thurmond: Democrat, state superintendent of public instruction.
• Antonio Villaraigosa: Democrat, former Los Angeles mayor.

Eric Swalwell and Betty Yee ended their campaigns before the primary. The candidates represent a variety of ideologies. Becerra is viewed as a traditional party figure. Porter campaigns as a policy-driven progressive focused on consumer protection. Villaraigosa is seen as centrist. Steyer runs on a populist progressive agenda, emphasizing climate action and economic inequality.

Bianco and Hilton represent traditional and populist branches of the Republican Party, respectively. They face challenges in this Democratic stronghold, although California’s primary system can lead to unexpected results. President Trump endorsed Hilton, who expressed cautious optimism, stating the race remains close.

Poll Results

The final Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey shows Becerra with 28% support. Steyer follows at 22%, and Hilton at 21%. Support fades for others, with Bianco at 12% and Porter and Mahan each at 5%. Undecided voters accounted for another 5%.

When asked again, undecided voters did not change Becerra’s support, keeping him at 28%. Hilton and Steyer each gained 23%. The poll was conducted among 1,000 likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3%.

“Xavier Becerra remains the frontrunner, while Tom Steyer and Steve Hilton have potential paths to the general election,” stated Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

Kimball noted Hilton could gain if Bianco loses support, while Steyer’s success hinges on attracting young voters and limiting Becerra’s growth.

Poll Comparison

The latest poll reflects a 9-point rise for Becerra since mid-May. Steyer and Hilton also advanced. An earlier poll showed Becerra leading with 19%, with Hilton and Steyer tied at 17%. Bianco had 11%, and Porter 10%. A University of California Berkeley poll indicated Becerra at 25%, Hilton at 21%, and Steyer at 19%.

The PPIC Statewide Survey showed Becerra at 23%, Hilton at 20%, and Steyer at 15%. Differences fall within statistical margins of error. Recent results align Democratic hopes as prior data hinted Hilton and Bianco could advance due to vote division among Democrats.