Intense Texas Senate Race: Talarico Leads Paxton in Close Contest

Democratic state Representative James Talarico holds a slight lead over Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton in the battle for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas. This insight comes from a survey conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research, released last Friday. Paxton emerged victorious from the Senate GOP runoff, overcoming Senator John Cornyn with the aid of a late endorsement from former President Donald Trump, who refrained from endorsing any candidate post the March primary.

The runoff resulted as neither Cornyn nor Paxton secured a majority in March, leading to a much-anticipated intraparty contest. This contest is significant not only for the GOP’s direction in a key Sun Belt state but also for determining who will face Talarico in the upcoming November election. According to the poll, Paxton garnered 44% of the vote, trailing Talarico who has 47%, while Libertarian Ted Brown trails with 1%. Additionally, 7% of voters remain undecided, and 2% are not planning to cast their vote.

Newsweek reached out to the campaigns of both Talarico and Paxton for comments, without immediate responses.

Poll Insights

The poll further explored the leanings of undecided voters. If pushed, 19% might favor Paxton, 17% Talarico, and 13% Brown. Yet, 50% of these undecideds remain uncertain. The survey covered 1,670 likely voters on May 27 and 28, with a margin of error of 2.8%.

Talarico’s favorability stands at 47%, with a 40% unfavorable opinion, while Paxton’s favorability is at 38%, overshadowed by a 57% unfavorable rating. When questioned about economic understanding, Talarico leads with 45% compared to Paxton’s 40%. Still, 8% say neither candidate understands economic challenges, and 7% are unsure.

Overall, 75% see Paxton as too conservative, whereas 60% view Talarico as too liberal.

GOP Tensions and Political Attacks

Since Paxton’s runoff victory, prominent Republicans like U.S. Senator Ted Cruz and White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller have criticized Talarico. Their attacks focus on diverse issues like the American flag, Talarico’s dietary preferences, and past comments on gender and faith. Meanwhile, Talarico’s campaign underscores previous controversies surrounding Paxton, labeling him possibly America’s most corrupt politician.

Cook Political Report’s Race Rating Downgrade

The Cook Political Report downgraded the Texas Senate race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” after Paxton’s win. Cook categorizes races from “solid Republican” to “solid Democrat.” This adjustment brings the Texas Senate race closer to being a “toss-up.” Jessica Taylor, editor for U.S. Senate and governors’ races at Cook, notes that Paxton’s win provides a controversial candidate, weaker in general election prospects compared to Cornyn, thus altering the rating.

Trump’s Reaction to Runoff Victory

Former President Trump congratulated Paxton on his victory, acknowledging Cornyn’s commendable career. On Truth Social, Trump appraised them: “Congratulations to Ken Paxton on a tremendous win, and to John Cornyn for a strong and powerful race. John will remain my friend, as we witness Ken become a fantastic Senator.” Trump criticized Talarico, labeling him as a weak opponent and emphasizing his different stances. Trump assured his support with significant rallies for Paxton, rallying Texas with enthusiasm and patriotism.