Los Angeles Mayoral Race: Spencer Pratt’s Fundraising Lead and Election Dynamics

In the Los Angeles mayoral race, candidate Spencer Pratt has significantly outpaced other contenders in fundraising, according to the most recent campaign finance filings. Between April 19 and May 16, Pratt raised approximately $2.72 million. During the same period, incumbent mayor Karen Bass raised around $283,000, as per documents from the Los Angeles Ethics Commission. Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman reported raising about $400,000 during this timeframe, including a $60,000 personal loan to her campaign, as reported by the Los Angeles Times.

Overall, Pratt’s contributions reached $3.26 million through May 16, slightly ahead of Bass, who reported $3.13 million. Raman’s total contributions exceeded $931,000.

Pratt, a reality television star who entered the race after losing his home in the Palisades Fire, has energized the campaign with viral videos. He has criticized Bass for her handling of the fire, public safety, and homelessness. Early voting has commenced for the June 2 election.

Pratt’s recent fundraising suggests he may secure enough votes to advance to a November runoff. However, he faces challenges in a city where Democrats dominate, and no Republican mayor has been elected since 1997. Although the election is nonpartisan, Pratt is a registered Republican backed by former President Donald Trump.

Despite Pratt’s fundraising success, polls indicate Bass remains the frontrunner, though not by a margin sufficient to avoid a runoff. Pratt and Raman are in a close race for second place.

What The Polls Say

An Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics poll indicated 30 percent support for Bass, an increase from 20 percent in March. Support for Pratt rose to 22 percent from 10 percent, while Raman had 19 percent support. The poll also showed a notable decrease in undecided respondents, from 51 percent in March to 16 percent in May. Conducted from May 9 to 10 among 1,000 likely voters, this poll had a margin of error of ±3 percent.

A Tavern Research poll showed Bass leading with 22 percent support, followed by Pratt at 18 percent and Raman at 16 percent. Initial undecided voters were 46 percent, dropping to 29 percent after follow-up. This poll surveyed 531 likely voters online between May 1 and 4, with a margin of error of ±6.1 percent.

What the Prediction Markets Show

Prediction markets, platforms where pricing reflects likelihood estimates, indicate recent gains for Bass, while Pratt and Raman’s odds have decreased. Early Monday, Bass was trading at 71 percent, up from 56 percent the previous week. Pratt’s trading decreased to 22 percent from 24 percent, and Raman’s fell to about 10 percent from 16 percent. U.S.-regulated exchange Kalshi showed similar trends, with Bass at 67 percent, Pratt at 27 percent, and Raman at about 7 percent as of Monday morning.

What Happens Next

The primary election is set for June 2. If no candidate achieves a majority, the top two will enter a runoff on November 3.