Potential Agreement Between U.S. and Iran to End War and Reopen Strait of Hormuz

A possible agreement between the U.S. and Iran is emerging to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump stated this weekend that the agreement is largely negotiated. However, the specifics of when or how the agreement might be finalized are still unclear, as well as when its various parts will come into effect. Trump’s comments followed discussions with Middle Eastern allies, including a separate call with Israel. Details have been sourced from two regional officials and a U.S. official who spoke anonymously due to the sensitive nature of the negotiations.

What We Know So Far

Over the past 12 weeks since the U.S. and Israel started the war with strikes that killed senior Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has insisted that any agreement must focus on ending conflicts on all fronts. This includes Lebanon, where the Iranian-backed Hezbollah has been fighting Israel since two days after the war began. A fragile cease-fire has held since April 7. Ending the war would relieve concerns across a region where Gulf connections, like the United Arab Emirates, have been targeted by Iranian missiles and drones.

The plan would allow global shipping, including an estimated 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas, to flow again through the Strait of Hormuz. It would also enable the reconstruction of energy and other infrastructures in the region.

Main Aspects of the Draft Agreement

Regional officials have noted the draft includes ending the war between Israel and Hezbollah and a pledge not to interfere in the internal affairs of regional countries, including Iran. This is crucial as it pertains to Iran’s support for allied forces such as the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas militants in Gaza, and Shiite armed groups in Iraq. The U.S wants Israel free to respond to perceived threats in Lebanon, which Iran opposes, according to a regional official. A U.S. official stated that the agreement would ensure Israel’s right to act against imminent threats for self-defense.

Gradual Reopening of Strait of Hormuz

The blockade initiated by the U.S. on Iranian ports on April 17 had restricted Iran’s ability to export oil, affecting its struggling economy. According to the emerging agreement, the Strait would reopen gradually alongside the U.S. ending this blockade. This move would enable Iran to sell oil under sanction exemptions, as per informed negotiations. Sanctions relief and release of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds are expected to be negotiated over 60 days, said an informed official.

Nuclear Concerns and Uranium Reserves

Iran’s nuclear program and international worries over potential nuclear weapon development are fundamental to the tensions. U.S. and Israel have considered military operations to destroy Iran’s highly enriched uranium. Under the potential agreement, Tehran would agree to relinquish this reserve, with specifics subject to further talks during a 60-day period. Some of the uranium might be diluted; the rest could be transferred to a third country, possibly Russia, which has offered to receive it. A U.S. official confirmed the 60-day period and warned that without Iran forsaking its reserve, no sanctions relief would occur.

Currently, Iran has 440.9 kilograms (972 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60% purity, a technical step away from weapons-grade levels, stated by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran claims an ‘inalienable’ right to nuclear technology and insists on peaceful purposes for its program. President Masoud Pezeshkian affirmed on state TV readiness to assure the world against nuclear weapon pursuit.

Trump remarked on social media that the U.S.’s relationship with Iran is becoming more professional and productive, but stressed Iran must not develop or acquire nuclear weapons.

Missing Components in the Potential Agreement

Certain elements remain unaddressed in the descriptions of the draft agreement, such as Iran’s uranium enrichment status and its missile program, which Israel seeks to dismantle. Despite U.S. and Israel’s initial aim in the war for Iranians to rise against their government following nationwide protests earlier this year, a regime change discussion appears omitted from this evolving accord.

Among objectives previously raised by Iran are not mentioned any discussions about U.S. forces’ withdrawal from the region or reparations for war damages.