2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA’s Outlook and Preparations

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The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will start on June 1. As residents along the coast keep an eye on the weather, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its forecast. NOAA anticipates a below-average season, predicting eight to 14 named storms. Among these, three to six may become hurricanes, with one to three reaching Category 3 strength or higher, as announced by the agency on Thursday.

Understanding the Predictions

Despite the below-average forecast, authorities urge caution. NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs emphasized, “Even though we’re expecting a below-average season in the Atlantic, it’s very important to understand that it only takes one.” He reminded the public that past seasons have seen Category 5 storms during below-average years. National Weather Service Director Ken Graham also highlighted technological improvements that enhance storm preparedness, stating that preparedness is at an all-time high.

NOAA estimates a 55% chance of below-normal activity, a 35% chance of near-normal activity, and a 10% chance of above-normal activity. A storm is named if its maximum sustained winds reach 39 mph, and it becomes a hurricane with winds of 74 mph or more. Major hurricanes are those reaching wind speeds of 111 mph, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Seasonal Patterns and Updates

The Atlantic hurricane season continues through November 30, with peak activity expected between August and October. NOAA will update the outlook periodically to reflect any changes in the forecast. In the previous year, NOAA’s predictions adapted as needed. The 2025 season saw 13 named storms, including five hurricanes, four of which were major, proving quieter than usual.

El Niño’s Influence

El Niño may impact the 2026 hurricane season. This climate pattern can lead to fewer Atlantic storms but may increase tropical storm activity in the Pacific. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, there is an 82% chance of El Niño arriving by July. Scientists continue to monitor its development to assess potential impacts.

Comparison with CSU Forecast

The 2026 outlook comes after a forecast from Colorado State University’s team, which also expects slightly less activity in the Atlantic basin. Their estimates include 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. Both NOAA and CSU plan to issue further updates over the coming months.