South Carolina Gubernatorial Race: Polls and Political Dynamics

Primary Election Dynamics

Representative Nancy Mace finds herself trailing other Republican candidates in the South Carolina gubernatorial primary according to recent polls. Mace faces challenges due to her ideological shifts and fluctuating relationship with former President Donald Trump. This election serves as a crucial test for the GOP’s direction in a state known for its conservative values. The party must decide whether it will support a candidate who diverges from Trump’s endorsement, such as Mace, or align with Trump-backed Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette.

Governor Henry McMaster cannot pursue a third term due to term limits, prompting various candidates to vie for his position. Candidates in the race include Mace, Evette, Representative Ralph Norman, businessman Rom Reddy, and Attorney General Alan Wilson. Newsweek contacted their campaigns for comments via email.

South Carolina Governor Race: Final Polls

The upcoming June 9 primary looks to be tightly contested. If no candidate secures more than 50 percent support, a runoff on June 23 will decide the outcome. Recent polls offer insights into voter leanings:

• Co/Efficient (June 2-4): 879 likely voters, margin of error (MOE) +/- 3.31 percent
• The Tyson Group (June 1-3): 500 likely voters, MOE +/- 4.4 percent
• The Citadel (May 21-31): 600 likely voters, MOE +/- 4.5 percent

According to Robert Oldendick, professor of political science at the University of South Carolina, most Republican candidates promote similar policies like eliminating state income tax. Evette and Wilson distinguish themselves with high name recognition as statewide officials. Mace’s complicated relationship with Trump and her congressional actions have hindered her campaign’s momentum, according to Oldendick.

Prediction Markets and Candidates’ Prospects

Prediction markets currently favor Pamela Evette to secure the nomination. Her odds rose after receiving Trump’s endorsement on May 29. On Kalshi, Evette has a 77 percent chance of winning, compared to Wilson’s 17 percent and Mace’s 4.3 percent. Polymarket provides similar odds, giving Evette a 73 percent likelihood, Wilson 13 percent, and Mace 4 percent.

These markets reflect real-time trader sentiments on political outcomes. Traders buy and sell contracts linked to political and current events, with prices fluctuating as new data on polling, fundraising, and political trends become available. While these markets gauge sentiment, they do not guarantee future results.

Nancy Mace and Trump: A Complex History

Initially seen as a promising figure in South Carolina politics, Nancy Mace once shared a close relationship with Donald Trump. She worked on his 2016 campaign and received his endorsement during her 2020 congressional run against Democrat Joe Cunningham, resulting in a narrow victory.

Their relationship soured following the January 6, 2021, Capitol riots. Mace criticized Trump’s role in the events, though she did not vote for his impeachment. This was a turning point in their relationship. During her 2022 reelection campaign, Trump endorsed Katie Arrington against Mace. Despite the lack of Trump’s support, Mace secured renomination with 53 percent of the vote.

By 2023, the tension eased somewhat. Mace publicly acknowledged the need for unity to prevent another Biden term. She endorsed Trump in January 2024, highlighting the need to counteract Biden’s policies. Mace stated her position as a strong conservative advocate, aligning with Trump despite differences. However, Trump chose to back Evette in the primary due to Mace’s stance on the Epstein files.

Democratic Chances in South Carolina

As the 2026 midterms approach, Democrats remain hopeful due to Trump’s declining national approval ratings. However, forecasts by the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball see the gubernatorial race being safely Republican. Kalshi gives Republicans a 91 percent chance, and Polymarket shows a 92 percent likelihood of retaining the seat in November.

Professor Oldendick anticipates that Republicans will maintain their edge in South Carolina, driven by strong fundraising and recognition. National trends favoring Democrats do not seem to strongly influence the state, which remains staunchly Republican. South Carolina supported Trump by an 18-point margin in the 2024 election. The state last favored a Democratic presidential candidate in 1976, and former Governor Jim Hodges was the last Democrat to win gubernatorial office in 1998, losing re-election in 2002.