Poll Analysis: Byron Donalds vs. David Jolly in Florida Gubernatorial Race

Poll Results and Implications for Florida’s Governor Race

Republican Congressman Byron Donalds is currently behind Democratic candidate David Jolly in the Florida governor’s race, according to a recent Change Research poll. This poll, from a Democratic-aligned firm, gives hope to Florida Democrats, who have not seen a statewide election win since 2018. The political landscape in Florida has shifted toward Republicans in recent years, with Governor Ron DeSantis securing a second term by nearly 20 percentage points in 2022. Despite this, the current race to succeed DeSantis, who is term-limited, appears more competitive than anticipated.

Endorsements and Campaign Strategies

Former President Donald Trump publicly supports Donalds, affirming his capability and endorsing him as a candidate who will not let down Florida’s voters. Trump won Florida by 13 points in the 2024 presidential race against then-Vice President Kamala Harris. No Democrat has been elected as Florida governor in over two decades.

The Donalds campaign responded to the poll by highlighting criticisms of the polling firm’s credibility. Gates McGavick, the campaign’s communications director, made a satirical remark about the poll’s findings. Also, Ryan Smith, another campaign affiliate, criticized the poll as biased, emphasizing confidence in Donalds’ victory.

Key Issues and Voter Support

The Change Research poll placed Jolly, a former Republican turned Democrat, ahead of Donalds. Jolly’s campaign targets rising insurance costs, housing, and healthcare issues. In contrast, Donalds pledges to continue Trump’s agenda, focusing on conservative policies and combating illegal immigration.

The poll indicates Jolly leading Donalds 47 percent to 42 percent, with Jolly’s support slightly increasing among likely voters. The survey was conducted among 1,273 registered voters, 1,015 of whom are likely to vote, with a margin of error of 2.8 percent. Jolly enjoys 94 percent support from Democrats, while 77 percent of Republicans support Donalds.

Additional Polling Insights

Another Change Research poll from May shows Jolly leading 46 percent to 42 percent, with a margin of error of 2.3 percent. The poll surveyed 2,070 registered voters, 1,593 of whom are likely voters. However, a March survey by Emerson College Polling had different results, showing Donalds at 44 percent versus Jolly’s 39 percent, with 17 percent undecided. This survey had a margin of error of 2.8 percent and involved 1,125 likely voters.