Mike Lindell Faces Tough Road in Minnesota GOP Primary and General Election

Mike Lindell, CEO of MyPillow and a supporter of former President Donald Trump’s unfounded claims about the 2020 election, is running for governor in Minnesota. He joined the gubernatorial race in December 2025. His entry coincided with rising concerns over fraud in Minnesota’s welfare programs, which have recently gained national attention.

Governor Tim Walz announced in January that he will not pursue a third term. This decision reshaped the electoral landscape, inviting numerous Democratic and Republican candidates. The Minnesota primary election is planned for August 11, 2026.

Republican Primary Challenges

Though Lindell’s campaign relies on internal polling suggesting possible victory in the Republican primary, other sources indicate a competitive race. Lindell’s effort highlights both the fragmented Republican field and the obstacles a GOP nominee might face in a state that typically leans Democratic.

Polls and Odds

No recent independent polling has thoroughly tested the Minnesota GOP primary among voters. A poll conducted by Big Data Poll for Lindell’s campaign in May showed him narrowly ahead with 21.3% support, just above Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth’s 19.4%. The survey involved 1,236 registered voters and noted a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

The poll further indicated that a Trump endorsement could raise Lindell’s support to 35.9%. However, Trump has not formally endorsed any candidate.

The only available independent survey by Peak Insights, conducted earlier in the year, had Lindell at 18% and Demuth at 17%, suggesting a tightly contested race.

Prediction markets forecast different outcomes. Polymarket favors Demuth with approximately 64% odds, while Lindell’s odds stand at 22%. Kalshi’s market gives similar odds—Demuth about 60% and Lindell 20%.

General Election Obstacles

Even if Lindell wins the primary, he could face challenges in a general election. Minnesota has not elected a Republican to statewide office since 2006. The state was last won by a Republican presidential candidate in 1972. While Vice President Kamala Harris won here by around 4 points in 2024, President Joe Biden had a 7-point margin in 2020. In 2016, Hillary Clinton secured a win with less than 2-point lead.

An Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely voters showed Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar leading Lindell by approximately 52.5% to 31.5%. A SurveyUSA poll of 575 registered voters confirmed similar trends, with Klobuchar at 52% and Lindell at 32%.

The Cook Political Report rates the race as Solid Democratic. Sabato’s Crystal Ball also views the election as Safe Democratic, indicating broad agreement that Democrats have an advantage.

Recent Context

The election is taking place amid increased focus on Minnesota, with significant attention on investigations into a $250 million welfare fraud case involving Feeding Our Future. Political tensions in the state have grown, drawing more national observation of its governance and policies.