Analysis of Trump’s Declining Approval Ratings Across States

President Trump’s Approval Rating: A Year into His Second Term

Over a year into President Donald Trump’s second term, Newsweek’s analysis reveals a significant decrease in his approval ratings nationwide, with notable declines in areas that were strong supporters.

State-Level Changes in Trump’s Approval

Net approval ratings have decreased in all states since Trump resumed office in January 2025. Surprisingly, the largest declines are in traditionally Republican states as well as Democratic ones. Currently, several battleground states like Florida, Ohio, and Nevada have transitioned from net approval to net disapproval.

The early advantages held by Trump in these states have diminished substantially. Though the political map still reflects partisan divides, it’s accompanied by weakened margins overall.

Tracking the Trends

The data comes from Civiqs’ continuous online poll of registered voters, featuring over 107,000 responses collected between January 20, 2025, and May 26, 2026. Newsweek compared these results from Trump’s first day of office to recent figures, measuring net approval as the difference between approval and disapproval rates.

Each state in the poll shows a decline in Trump’s net approval since the start of his second term. The steepest declines are seen among a mix of Republican strongholds and critical battlegrounds.

Utilize the map filter to compare Trump’s net approval by state from the beginning of his second term to the latest Civiqs figures. Search your state to observe how his approval has changed over time.

The most impactful changes occur when states transition from positive to negative net approval or where early pro-Trump margins have sharply narrowed.

Significant Drops: States with the Largest Declines

These figures illustrate the substantial loss in support since Trump assumed office:

• Wyoming: +47 → +22 (drop of 25 points)
• Kentucky: +23 → 0 (drop of 23 points)
• Nebraska: +18 → -4 (drop of 22 points)
• Alaska: +9 → -12 (drop of 21 points)
• Florida: +9 → -12 (drop of 21 points)
• Oklahoma: +31 → +10 (drop of 21 points)
• Nevada: 0 → -20 (drop of 20 points)
• Maine: -12 → -31 (drop of 19 points)
• Ohio: +8 → -11 (drop of 19 points)
• Utah: +20 → +1 (drop of 19 points)

States like Wyoming remain Trump’s strongest, yet even where his margin is shrinking significantly. The shifting landscape is evident in states such as Kentucky, moving from positive approval to neutral territory.

Neighboring states in the same region, including Idaho, Tennessee, and Montana, share this trend, dropping by 19 points each.

Transitions in Battleground States

The political significance is pronounced in swing states, where minor shifts can greatly impact outcomes. Some have crossed critical thresholds:

• Florida: +9 → -12
• Ohio: +8 → -11
• Nevada: 0 → -20
• Nebraska: +18 → -4

Pennsylvania and North Carolina also remain competitive, yet demonstrate further declines since the start of Trump’s term. This pattern indicates Trump is struggling in states pivotal for national elections.

Republican Strongholds: Persisting Support with Reduced Margins

Though Trump continues to find support in Republican-centric states, the margins are considerably narrower compared to the beginning of his presidency. States such as Oklahoma, Idaho, Tennessee, and Montana remain positive but are nearly 20 points down since January 2025.

In deeply conservative Wyoming, Trump’s net approval advantage decreased by more than half, implying his base is still intact but less dominant than previously.

Democratic States: Firm Opposition

In states favoring Democrats, Trump began his term with notably negative ratings. These numbers have worsened yet further. States including California, New York, and Massachusetts now experience increased negative net approval.

Here, the trend shows deeply entrenched opposition becoming more permanent.

Exploring the Factors Behind the Decline

A uniform theme across states with significant declines: decreased approval and increased disapproval rates. In numerous instances, approval decreased by approximately 10 to 14 points, whereas disapproval expanded by roughly 8 to 11 points.

This simultaneous shift indicates a substantial transition in voter attitudes. Consider Wyoming:

• Approval: 72 → 58 (down 14)
• Disapproval: 25 → 36 (up 11)
• Net: +47 → +22 (down 25)

When approval and disapproval rates shift together, net approval rapidly decreases, which is happening on a national scale.

National Map: Familiar Borders with Adjusted Strength

Altogether, the data presents a political map with unchanged borders but weaker strengths. Trump’s strongest states remain as such, while his weakest states retain their opposition. Nationwide, the margins have shifted downward.

At the beginning of his second term, Trump had positive net approval across most Republican states and was competitive in some battlegrounds. A year later, many of these states now reflect narrow positives, balanced splits or distinctly negative ratings.

The landscape still displays dividing lines, but the underlying conditions have shifted.

White House Stance

The White House has dismissed poll-based findings, citing Trump’s 2024 election as a clearer indicator of public support. Spokesperson Davis Ingle has reiterated Trump’s nearly 80 million votes as confirmation of an administrative mandate, framing this figure as the ultimate judgment on policy agenda.

Ingle continues to pivot the focus to economic priorities—such as jobs, inflation, and housing affordability—while stressing that the influence of Trump’s policies will become apparent over time.