Potential Ebola Outbreak in Central Africa Raises Concerns of Rapid Spread

The Ebola outbreak in Central Africa could potentially reach 20,000 cases or even more, based on how efficiently infected individuals are isolated. This is the latest analysis by U.S. health officials. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released multiple scenarios using computer models, predicting a range from 10,000 to over 20,000 cases.

In the worst-case scenario, this outbreak could rival the severe outbreak in West Africa between 2014 and 2016, which had over 28,000 reported cases and resulted in more than 11,000 deaths. Dr. Satish Pillai, the incident manager for the CDC’s Ebola response, highlighted that without strong public health interventions, such a large-scale outbreak is plausible.

Jennifer Nuzzo, director of Brown University’s Pandemic Center, expressed concern, acknowledging that the outbreak is on a dangerous path. Though she cautioned against fixating on the specific numbers due to the challenges in accurate predictions with limited data.

As of Friday, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention reported approximately 400 confirmed cases, including 63 deaths. However, the actual number might be higher due to undiagnosed or unreported cases. The Ebola virus spreads via contact with bodily fluids, including vomit, blood, and semen. There is no treatment or vaccine for the Bundibugyo strain causing this outbreak, and the disease is often fatal.

The World Health Organization declared the outbreak a global health emergency in May. Experts suspect infections could have started in February, but initial tests for a different Ebola strain delayed the identification of this outbreak.

The response is further hampered by ongoing conflict in the region. Fighting between Congo’s government and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group, along with attacks from the Islamic State-affiliated Allied Democratic Force, has caused significant displacement in affected areas.

Despite these concerns, experts, including Nuzzo, assess the risk to the United States as low. Protective measures include banning entry to non-citizens and non-green-card holders from Congo, Uganda, or South Sudan, and screening returning U.S. citizens at designated airports.

The CDC’s modeling considers various factors, such as the extent of infections and deaths, and efforts to isolate infected individuals. If around 50 deaths occurred and only 20% of cases were successfully isolated by late May, the model suggests a projection of at least 20,000 cases and 4,000 deaths over three months.

Dr. Pillai mentioned that the actual isolation rate might be lower than those in the CDC’s models. Higher isolation rates of 50% to 70% could result in fewer cases, closer to 10,000. Yet, if more deaths occurred by late May than recognized, the outcomes could be worse.

Previously, CDC modeling during the West Africa Ebola outbreak in 2014 projected up to 1.4 million infections in a worst-case scenario, which did not materialize. The actual number of infected was significantly lower.

Note: The Associated Press Health and Science Department is supported by grants from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The AP maintains sole responsibility for the content.