Colombia’s Election and Its Potential Impact

On Sunday, Colombians will head to the polls in an election that could significantly alter the country’s ties with the United States, its stance on Venezuela, and its strategies for combating drug trafficking and armed groups. The election is highly polarized, with two main candidates emerging: Ivan Cepeda, a left-wing senator and the chosen successor to President Gustavo Petro, and Abelardo De La Espriella, a hard-right outsider who has shaken up Colombian politics.

Current Political Landscape

The election could extend into a June runoff, as recent polls show neither candidate is likely to capture an outright majority. De La Espriella has experienced a remarkable rise, moving from 1.1% support in March 2025 to running closely with Cepeda in early 2026. The latest Invamer survey, conducted from May 13 to May 20, places Cepeda in the lead with 44.6%, while De La Espriella follows at 31.6%. Another candidate, Paloma Valencia, is now at 14%.

Polls and Predictions

Various polling organizations expect a runoff between Cepeda and De La Espriella, though prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi suggest De La Espriella could win the presidency, giving him a 59% chance compared to Cepeda’s 40%. This difference underlines a key aspect of the race; despite Cepeda’s lead in initial polling, analysts believe De La Espriella could unite right-wing voters in a runoff.

Significance of the Election

For the United States, Colombia remains a strategic ally in Latin America. The two countries have collaborated closely on security and counternarcotics for over two decades, though this relationship has faced strains under Petro’s administration. A victory for De La Espriella could bring a positive shift under President Donald Trump’s administration, whereas a Cepeda win might continue current tensions.

“The United States operates a giant embassy in Bogotá and before the last few years, U.S. diplomats enjoyed close cooperation on a range of issues, including security,” said Benjamin Gedan from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

Ivan Cepeda: The Heir to Petro

Ivan Cepeda, at 56 years old, is a well-known progressive figure in Colombia and a member of Petro’s Historic Pact coalition. He promotes policy continuity, focusing on social programs, environmental preservation, and peace talks. However, Cepeda faces criticism over ongoing insecurity and the slow economic pace. Detractors argue his defense of Petro’s “Paz Total” negotiation strategy has not curbed violence effectively.

The Rise of Abelardo De La Espriella

Abelardo De La Espriella, 54, is a lawyer and political newcomer who positions himself as an anti-establishment figure, emphasizing law-and-order themes. His tough stance on crime and plans for substantial prison development contrast with Cepeda’s approach. Known as “The Tiger,” he focuses more on emotional appeal than detailed policies. His legal career, including connections to controversial clients, has stirred debates.

The Decline of Paloma Valencia

Initially seen as the conservative favorite and backed by former President Álvaro Uribe, Paloma Valencia’s campaign has lost momentum. As De La Espriella attracted anti-Petro supporters, the electoral fight narrowed to a two-person race, leaving Valencia behind despite her strong credentials.

Potential Runoff Scenario

Most polling anticipates a runoff between Cepeda and De La Espriella, presenting voters with distinct options: continuing Petro-era policies or opting for a significant shift to the right. Recent polling by Invamer in a potential runoff shows Cepeda ahead by 7 points; however, many voters remain undecided.

Petro’s Influence on the Election

The election serves as a referendum on Pedro’s presidency with supporters acknowledging reduced unemployment and poverty. Opponents point to insecurity and increasing coca production. Former U.S. Ambassador Kevin Whitaker criticized Petro’s “Paz Total” effort. This election could define whether Colombia maintains Petro’s direction or chooses a new path.