The recent Super Bowl halftime show, which featured Bad Bunny, turned into a topic of debate due to Cardi B’s role in the performance. Her participation puzzled two major prediction markets, sparking a backlash regarding the resolution of event contracts related to her appearance.
One trader from the Kalshi platform raised a complaint with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) concerning the market’s handling of Cardi B’s participation. Simultaneously, users of Polymarket also expressed dissatisfaction with the outcome of a similar betting contract.
Prediction markets allow individuals to trade or wager on future events, usually via yes-or-no questions known as event contracts. The prices on these contracts correspond to what participants are willing to pay, which reflects the perceived probability of the event’s occurrence. The contracts generally have buy-in prices from $0 to $1, representing a 0% to 100% probability.
Kalshi’s market for predicting “Who will perform at the Big Game?” saw more than $47.3 million in wagers, while Polymarket recorded over $10 million in contract volume. The halftime show featured several celebrities alongside Cardi B, including singers Karol G and Young Miko, and actors Jessica Alba and Pedro Pascal. Cardi B was seen dancing during the show, but there was uncertainty about whether she was singing along with performances by artists like Ricky Martin and Lady Gaga.
Due to the ambiguity over whether Cardi B’s involvement qualified as a “performance,” Kalshi settled the market based on its rule by closing at the last price before trading halted: $0.74 for ‘No’ holders and $0.26 for ‘Yes’ holders. The platform reimbursed all investments to its users. Meanwhile, Polymarket resolved the contract as if Cardi B had performed, though this decision faced disputes, and an official resolution was anticipated.
The Event Horizon newsletter and Front Office Sports reported that a trader lodged a CFTC complaint, accusing Kalshi of breaching the Commodity Exchange Act with its contract resolution. This trader, a ‘Yes’ holder, is seeking $3,700 in compensation.
A spokesperson for the CFTC refrained from commenting on the situation. However, the Super Bowl marked a significant point for prediction markets, witnessing a substantial increase in trading volumes during the NFL season.
Kalshi documented a record-setting daily trading volume exceeding $1 billion on game day, an increase over 2,700% compared to the previous year’s Super Bowl. Cumulatively, all future wagers on the Super Bowl winners amounted to $828.6 million, reflecting growth exceeding 2,000% from the previous year.
The spike in activity on the day caused some deposit issues on Kalshi. Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi’s co-founder, mentioned on social media that the “traffic spike was way beyond our most optimistic forecasts.” She noted that the platform compensated affected users by reimbursing processing fees and offering credits to those who experienced payment delays.
Additionally, Robinhood Markets utilized the occasion to emphasize the robustness of its prediction markets during its financial results announcement for the fourth quarter and full 2025. CEO Vlad Tenev commented on an earnings call, “I think we are just at the beginning of a prediction market super cycle that could drive trillions in annual volume over time.” He further noted that the current year would be significant, considering the ongoing Olympics and the upcoming World Cup in the summer.