Federal authorities are investigating whether former Representative George Santos engaged in insider trading by betting on a prediction market regarding his attendance at President Trump’s State of the Union address in late February. This marks the third insider trading case to emerge in recent weeks.
Before the speech, Mr. Santos declared on social media his intention to attend. His potential presence became a hot topic among bettors on Kalshi, an online prediction market, who were wagering on the guest list. In a video on X, Mr. Santos teased, “I’m gonna be in the gallery.”
However, Mr. Santos ultimately missed the event. Around the same time, Kalshi identified that he had placed a bet against his own attendance, according to an unnamed source familiar with the ongoing investigation. The company alerted both the Justice Department and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates prediction markets.
The CFTC is now investigating Mr. Santos. It remains unclear whether the Justice Department has proceeded with its own investigation. Mr. Santos has yet to respond to requests for comment.
This investigation arises as the Trump administration faces pressure to enforce regulations on insider trading within the burgeoning prediction markets. Kalshi stands out among several prediction market companies with links to the president’s business interests. In the previous year, Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, was appointed as a strategic advisor for the firm.

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