California’s Gubernatorial Race: Key Insights and Developments

As California’s June 2 gubernatorial primary approaches, a UC Berkeley poll reveals a tight race among three candidates seeking to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom. The survey, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, shows Democratic candidate Xavier Becerra leading among likely voters with 25% support. Republican Steve Hilton follows with 21%, and Democrat Tom Steyer garners 19% support.

The poll indicates that Becerra, Hilton, and Steyer have distinguished themselves from other candidates as their support has surged since the previous survey in March. Becerra, initially at the bottom with only 5%, now leads the race. Meanwhile, support for other candidates like Republican Chad Bianco and Democrat Katie Porter has declined.

Poll director Mark DiCamillo reminds us of the uncertainty in predicting which two candidates will advance to the November general election due to low voter turnout and mail-in ballots yet to be returned. The poll highlights that Democratic turnout is lower compared to previous elections, raising questions about the election’s outcome.

According to the survey, Democrats lean heavily towards Becerra, while non-party-preference voters are split among the three leading candidates. Hilton leads among Republicans, with a significant advantage over Bianco. Becerra has notable support from women and Latino voters, while Steyer appeals to Black voters. Hilton draws support from libertarians and voters in specific regions, including Orange County.

For the first time in over 25 years, the race for California’s governor lacks a clear front-runner despite many candidates.

Two prominent Democrats, former Vice President Kamala Harris and U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla, considered running but opted out, affecting the primary’s dynamics. The election occurs amidst challenges like President Trump’s past immigration policies and recent California wildfires, pushing Californians to focus on issues such as healthcare funding cuts, rising gas prices, and affordability crises.

Although the 2026 governor’s race lacks the high-profile candidates of past elections, recent developments have caused increased attention. Former Rep. Eric Swalwell’s withdrawal over misconduct allegations and the record-breaking campaign contributions from Steyer have reshaped the race.

The poll indicates that cost of living, homelessness, and public safety are major voter concerns. Voting rights also remain a critical issue, with Democrats focusing on disenfranchisement fears, while Republicans echo claims of election rigging.

California operates under a unique primary system where the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the general election. Despite Democratic dominance in voter registration, party leaders feared a split vote among their candidates could advance Republicans Hilton and Bianco to the general election. However, Trump’s endorsement of Hilton significantly boosted his support among Republicans.

DiCamillo notes Hilton’s unusual campaign strategies, relying less on traditional advertising and more on media presence. Despite his rise, a significant portion of voters still remain undecided about him.

The prospect of Democrats being shut out of the November election has influenced their strategies, leading some low-polling candidates to drop out. Polling now suggests an unlikely scenario of two Republicans reaching the general election, with a slight chance for two Democrats to advance.

The UC Berkeley survey polled 8,578 registered California voters online, with a margin of error of approximately 2 percentage points. As the primary nears, the election’s outcome remains uncertain, influenced by voter turnout and last-minute developments.