Challenges for Democrats in U.S. House Redistricting

Democrats face a challenging landscape in trying to catch up with Republicans in the 2026 race to redraw U.S. House maps. While catching up by 2028 is possible, it requires overcoming significant redistricting hurdles that Republicans do not encounter.

Obstacles in Redistricting Efforts

In several states, Democrats encounter independent redistricting commissions that prevent drawing partisan lines. States like Colorado, New Jersey, New York, and Washington have commissions designed to create fair boundaries. Democrats will need voter approval to nullify these commissions and replace them with maps that reflect partisan interests, similar to what Republicans achieved following demands from former President Donald Trump for map redrawing in GOP-controlled states.

Failure to meticulously follow procedures can lead to legal setbacks. Virginia’s Supreme Court recently overturned voter-approved maps due to procedural errors by the Democrat-controlled legislature.

“It’s going to be expensive, it’s going to be unpopular, and it’s going to be a challenge for them to do what they want,” said Adam Kincaid, executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust.

Impact of the Next Census

Despite setbacks, Democrats are favored to win control of the House this year. However, achieving a majority in 2028 appears more daunting. Midterm elections often favor the opposition party, evident from Democrats gaining 40 seats during Trump’s first midterm in 2018. Future redistricting could allow Republicans to eliminate Democratic-held districts, particularly majority-minority seats, due to a recent Supreme Court decision.

Strategic Advancements Required

Democrats must navigate complicated political maneuvers to enhance their congressional position. Illinois and Oregon offer opportunities to secure more seats with fewer restrictions. In states like Maryland, Democrats work towards putting constitutional amendments on ballots to adjust redistricting advantageously.

In Colorado, New York, and New Jersey, substantive gains are possible but require constitutional changes. Maryland Democrats aim to eliminate the state’s sole Republican seat by 2028 through voters’ approval.

Redistricting reform is complicated by voters’ support for balanced maps. California’s recent success is a model, where a new map adoption passed easily, potentially gaining up to five seats.

“Looking at the next census makes me all the more stressed to ban partisan gerrymandering at the federal level,” said John Bisogano, executive director of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee.

Existential Threat from Republican Gerrymandering

Colorado exemplifies the Democrats’ strategy shift. After Republicans gained control in numerous statehouses during the 2010 midterms, Democrats promoted nonpartisan redistricting. This movement peaked in Colorado with the establishment of an independent commission in 2018. Now there is a push among Democrats to override that commission amid fears of losing seats.

Former Democratic President Barack Obama and other influential figures call for aggressive national redistricting strategies to counter Republican maneuvers.

Associated Press writer Scott Bauer in Madison, Wisconsin, contributed to this report.