Global Fertilizer Shortage Affects Farmers Amid Iran Conflict

Farmers worldwide face challenges due to the ongoing conflict involving Iran, which has led to a steep rise in gas prices and a significant drop in fertilizer supplies. Tehran’s response to U.S. and Israeli actions by almost closing the Strait of Hormuz has intensified these issues.

The resulting fertilizer shortage endangers farmers’ livelihoods, especially in developing nations already grappling with climate-related issues. This could potentially lead to increased food costs globally. Carl Skau of the World Food Program highlights that fertilizer imports, crucial for the poorest farmers in the Northern Hemisphere, are scarce just as planting begins.

“In the worst case, this means lower yields and crop failures next season,” said Skau. “In the best case, higher input costs will be included in food prices next year.”

Baldev Singh, a farmer from Punjab, India, expresses concern over the survival of smallholders if the government fails to subsidize fertilizers.

The conflict restricts key nutrients crucial for farming. Iran’s limited shipments through the Strait of Hormuz affect about 20% of the world’s oil shipments and 30% of the global fertilizer trade.

Iran’s partial allowance for humanitarian and agricultural shipments presents the first positive move at this chokepoint. However, the blocked fertilizer supplies pose a greater threat to farming and global food security than the halted oil and natural gas shipments.

Nitrogen fertilizers, especially urea, face drastic supply cuts due to shipping delays and the inflated cost of liquefied natural gas. Chris Lawson from CRU Group notes that global urea trade has decreased by about 30%. Ethiopia, heavily reliant on Gulf-sourced nitrogen fertilizer, now confronts severe shortages.

Phosphate supplies also face constraints as Saudi Arabia, a major exporter, has curtailed exports contributing to 40% of global sulfur trade. Security assurances would be necessary for producers in the Gulf to resume trades post-conflict, cautions Owen Gooch of Argus Consulting Services.

India has tried to buffer its fertilizing needs by prioritizing urea domestically and subsidizing natural gas supplies, yet local production struggles.

“The food system is fragile, and it depends on stable fertilizer supply chains,” stated Hanna Opsahl-Ben Ammar of Yara International.

The timing of the shortage is critical. Fertilizers are crucial during planting to prevent yield reduction due to missing key growth stages. Shortages are felt in the U.S. and Europe, where planting is underway, and are expected to impact Asia soon.

Dirk Peters, a Berlin-based agricultural engineer, notes the urgency for nitrogen application now to secure a strong start for crops.

Joseph Glauber from the International Food Policy Research Institute emphasizes that tighter margins force farmers to opt for less fertilizer-dependent crops, like soybeans, potentially leading to price hikes for consumers.

China and Russia remain focused on domestic fertilizer supply, which doesn’t fill the global gap. Developing countries face dire consequences, highlighted by Africa’s dependence on imports from conflict-ridden regions.

Kenya’s maize farmers, represented by Stephen Muchiri, struggle with fertilizer costs, which leads to reduced yields due to decreased application.

Government interventions, such as subsidies or promoting domestic production, are needed to cope with the crisis, but these often leave little for long-term investments. India’s significant urea subsidies illustrate this financial juggling.

Efforts by India to boost local production have increased dependency on imported gas and degraded local soils through excessive urea use.

Oliver Oliveros from the Agroecology Coalition suggests that decreasing reliance on imported fertilizers might protect against unpredictably fluctuating energy prices and climatic disturbances.

This report was initially published on March 27, 2026, and revised on March 30, 2026, to clarify Saudi Arabia’s role in fertilizer exports. Saudi Arabia is responsible for about a fifth of global phosphate fertilizer exports, not production.

Report by Olingo from Nairobi, Kenya, with contributions from Jamey Keaten in Geneva and Kerstin Sopke in Berlin.

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