Is Florida Shifting Away from Republican Dominance?

David Jolly, a Florida gubernatorial candidate, shared promising news at a Democratic picnic near Fort Lauderdale. “We’re winning,” he declared, igniting the crowd. Despite being a mild-mannered lawyer, Jolly’s statement was met with enthusiastic applause akin to a rock star announcing an upcoming hit. He went on to say, “But this is a blue wave!”

Historically, Republicans have secured seven consecutive governor’s races and hold every statewide office with supermajorities in both houses of the State Legislature. However, Florida Democrats have made recent gains. They flipped the Miami mayor’s office and captured long-shot seats in the State Senate and State House, including the district covering Mar-a-Lago. Rising living costs and falling approval ratings for President Trump are contributing factors.

Jolly, a former Republican congressman who recently became a Democrat, is optimistic about a significant Democratic victory similar to the post-Watergate G.O.P. defeat in 1974. His campaign reflects this optimism, focusing on traditional Democratic values without shying away from party identity. He presents himself as a problem solver dedicated to reducing Florida’s cost of living.

Jolly’s strategy banks on Florida’s weariness with Republican-led culture wars, such as book bans and rainbow crosswalk controversies. He aims to offer normalcy, decency, and affordability. Nonetheless, relying on a substantial Democratic surge poses risks, considering Trump’s victory in Florida and DeSantis’s landslide win.

Florida’s political landscape once exemplified electoral cliffhangers; it was famously won by George W. Bush with a margin of 537 votes. Trump, Obama, Scott, and DeSantis all secured statewide victories by small margins. The influx of Republican baby boomers has shifted Florida from being a decisive swing state toward a political landscape akin to southern Alabama.