Support for Trump’s Immigration Policies Declines After Controversial Incidents

In early 2026, there has been a notable decline in support for President Donald Trump’s immigration policies. This shift follows incidents involving federal immigration agents, who shot and killed two American citizens last month. The events have significantly impacted public perception, according to a new NBC News Decision Desk Poll conducted with SurveyMonkey.

The poll reveals that Trump’s aggressive immigration tactics have led to a drop in approval on a key issue that previously bolstered his popularity. Historically seen as a strong point during his political campaigns, these recent events have placed Trump’s immigration and border security ratings on par with his overall approval ratings.

Disapproval for Trump’s handling of immigration has notably increased. Nearly half (49%) of adults now strongly disapprove of his approach, a rise from 38% the previous summer and 34% in April. Self-identified independents were a significant factor in this shift, showing an 11-point rise in strong disapproval since August.

Concerns were sparked by the death of Alex Pretti in Minnesota, with 60% of respondents to the poll expressing disapproval of Trump’s immigration methods, while only 40% approved. Importantly, 27% strongly approved, and 13% somewhat approved.

Trump’s overall approval rating has fallen slightly, now standing at 39%, consistent with his immigration and border security ratings. Marc Trussler, a senior elections analyst, noted, “Independents are vital in elections, especially in swing states. Their current stance on Trump’s key priorities is quite revealing.”

“In these elections that are won on the margins, particularly in the swing states, independents are a really critical group,” said Marc Trussler.

The fallout from the fatal shootings of Pretti and Renee Good in Minnesota highlights the limitations of Trump’s messaging. Instead of addressing these incidents, the administration has attempted to shift the narrative to criticize “sanctuary” policies. However, public sentiment reveals that almost three-quarters of respondents desire reforms or abolition of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency, with most believing immigration officers have overstepped.

A significant portion of respondents, 63%, feel the federal government has disregarded local and state governments too much, whereas 37% believe otherwise. Additional concerns include disapproval of immigration agents wearing masks (63%) and blame for street clashes directed towards the administration rather than protesters. Additionally, 58% disagreed that law-abiding citizens have “nothing to fear” from these agents.

Despite dissatisfaction, there is still public support for local cooperation with federal authorities on deportations. Forty-six percent favor some level of cooperation, whereas 34% support full cooperation, and 20% oppose any cooperation.

The poll, conducted from January 27 to February 6, reflects these shifts in public opinion following the Minnesota incidents, with a margin of error of ±2.4 percentage points. Amid these events, changes in immigration operations leadership were seen in Minneapolis, along with plans to withdraw several agents from the city.

Public opinion has been largely influenced by social media, with 34% citing it as the most accurate information source, followed by 24% favoring national news accounts. A significant 62% lack trust in the federal investigations’ fairness and transparency related to the tragic incidents, partly due to media coverage on the exclusion of local authorities and resignations of federal prosecutors under pressure from the Trump administration.

Politically, these developments pose challenges for Trump as he faces midterm elections in the second year of his term, with overall approval slipping to 39% from 42% in a December survey. Approval ratings for ICE are even lower, at 34%, and 65% of respondents believe the country is heading in the wrong direction.

The survey also highlights divisions within the Republican base, exacerbated by Trump’s immigration policies. While supporters of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement tended to back immigration officers’ actions, traditional Republicans showed less enthusiasm. For example, 74% of MAGA Republicans approved of officers wearing masks, compared to only 46% of traditional Republicans.

Meanwhile, investigative transparency surrounding the shootings divides views, with 91% of MAGA supporters versus 73% of traditional Republicans showing confidence in the process. A parallel survey conducted in Minnesota mirrored the national poll results, emphasizing a preference for local news as a reliable source of information.

The NBC News Decision Desk Poll, conducted online with 21,995 adults, illustrates these trends with a ±2.4 percentage point error margin. Notably, public opinion has been swayed by the spread of online video footage depicting confrontations related to these tragic events.