Nevada Gubernatorial Race: Ford vs. Lombardo

Nevada’s Gubernatorial Race: Key Matchup

Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford will challenge Republican Governor Joe Lombardo in Nevada’s upcoming election. Ford’s primary victory has set the stage for what many expect to be a fierce competition. Nevada plays a significant role as a battleground state, having supported Donald Trump in 2024 after backing Democrats in previous years.

The Cook Political Report describes the race as a ‘toss up.’ Before Lombardo, Democrat Steve Sisolak held the governor’s position. The upcoming election is crucial for Democrats aiming to regain influence both in Congress and in governor seats during the 2026 midterms.

Primary Victory Details

Aaron Ford secured the Democratic nomination by defeating Washoe County Commissioner Alexis Hill and other contenders. Ford’s win may indicate that establishment-backed candidates hold their ground better in statewide races compared to progressive challengers. A win in November would make Ford Nevada’s first Black governor. The Associated Press reported Ford’s victory was called at 11:45 p.m., with him receiving 66.2% of the vote against Hill’s 21.1%.

Governor Lombardo, previously declared the winner by news outlets at 11:35 p.m., had an impressive 91.4% of votes counted by 11:52 p.m. ET. Lombardo presents a vulnerable target for Democrats as the midterms approach. Having mostly aligned with Trump, he has at times created distance, notably during Trump’s April visit to Las Vegas. Concerns have also been raised over the financial implications of mass deportation plans under his administration. Former Vice President Kamala Harris has endorsed Ford in his gubernatorial bid.

Current Polling Insights

Available polling data shows a tight race. A March survey by Noble Predictive Insights gave Lombardo a narrow 1-point lead with 39% over Ford’s 38%. In the same survey, 6% supported a third-party candidate and 17% were undecided. Among independents and moderates, Lombardo maintains leads of 6 and 2 points, but Ford appeals more to Hispanics and women, leading by 24 and 4 points, respectively.

Lombardo’s favorability rating stands at 48%, compared to Ford’s 40%. However, Ford remains less recognized, with 27% of voters lacking familiarity or opinion compared to 14% for Lombardo. The poll of 845 registered voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.37 percentage points.

Noble Predictive Insights notes Lombardo’s competitive standing, stating, “Lombardo is doing what strong incumbents do—he’s running ahead of his party.” Although the generic ballot suggests Nevada leans slightly blue, Lombardo’s personal reputation and financial position keep him a formidable candidate.

A November survey by Emerson College Polling, which involved 800 registered voters, found both candidates tied at 41%. In this survey, 18% were undecided, and the margin of error was plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. The poll showed 36% of voters disapprove of Lombardo’s performance as governor, with 34% expressing approval.

Market Predictions

Prediction markets indicate a slight Democratic edge in the race. Kalshi gives Democrats a 56% chance of winning, while Republicans have a 46% probability. Polymarket reflects a similar trend, with Democrats at 54% and Republicans at 43%.