Colombia Faces Political Shift with De La Espriella’s Potential Victory

Abelardo De La Espriella, a right-wing populist millionaire without prior political experience, appears on the brink of a narrow victory over left-wing senator Iván Cepeda in Colombia’s presidential election. If the preliminary results stand, in a few weeks, the Trump-endorsed outsider will assume control of Latin America’s third-largest country, succeeding Gustavo Petro. Petro’s tenure marked a historic shift as Colombia’s first leftist president.

While these results might seem like a simple return from left to right, Colombia is not just experiencing a conservative shift. The country is in a turbulent political cycle characterized by significant polarization and a widespread dissatisfaction with traditional institutions. Many unfulfilled demands for change persist. De La Espriella’s rise represents more than a conservative trend; it embodies what is often called, in Spanish, “un salto al vacío,” or a leap into the void.

This trend is not limited to Colombia. Across Latin America, and other regions, the craving for change has become stronger than any specific ideology. Over the last decade, an anti-incumbent sentiment has grown. Voters increasingly reject governing parties regardless of political affiliation. Faced with economic and security challenges, many citizens now favor authoritarian leaders or governments they believe can effectively address issues, often prioritizing results over adherence to norms.

This stance helped Petro claim power in 2022. Now, similar hopes for change have bolstered De La Espriella’s position. The pattern is telling. The government’s repeated inability to solve chronic issues — persistent violence, severe inequality, and poor state presence in large regions — has eroded public trust in centrist politics. Both Petro and De La Espriella leveraged this dissatisfaction, presenting themselves as outsiders challenging a stagnant and discredited system, though in very distinct ways.

Petro’s presidency wasn’t without merit. He addressed legitimate grievances about poverty and inequality and widened the political dialogue to include Afro-Colombian and Indigenous communities, groups historically excluded from power. However, like other populists in Latin America, his strength lay in campaigning rather than governance. His administration suffered from internal conflicts, corruption scandals, attempts to sidestep Congress, and failed to convert ambitious promises into concrete reforms. Petro dealt with severe fiscal imbalance, a healthcare crisis, and an erosion of Colombia’s typically strong technocracy.

His most significant shortcoming was in security. Petro’s flagship program, Total Peace, aimed at negotiating settlements with insurgent groups and urban gangs, deviating from past military strategies. Despite good intentions, the results were disappointing. Armed factions grew, combatant numbers soared, and morale in the military dropped. Coca production reached new heights, and violence increased. Many Colombians started to believe that the government had lost control.