Iowa Senate Candidate Josh Turek Leads in Polls Against Ashley Hinson

Analysis of the Iowa Senate Race

Democrat Josh Turek has gained a slight edge over Republican Ashley Hinson in a recent internal poll concerning the Iowa Senate race. Iowa, which previously supported Barack Obama, has turned into a Republican stronghold, backing Donald Trump by significant margins in recent elections. This year’s Senate race is crucial for Democrats aiming to expand their influence in the Midwest amidst Trump’s declining national approval ratings.

Both Turek and Hinson aim to succeed Republican Senator Joni Ernst, who chose not to seek reelection. Early polls indicate a close competition between Turek, a state legislator, and Hinson, a U.S. Representative. Analysts view the race as an indicator of Democratic prospects in the Midwest after losing ground over the past ten years.

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Global Strategy Group Poll

The Global Strategy Group has released a poll showing Turek with a narrow 2-point lead over Hinson. This poll, overseen by Turek’s team, reveals 47% support for him, with 45% backing Hinson. Trump’s favorability in Iowa is notably low, with 45% of respondents viewing him positively and 52% negatively. The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters from June 8-11 and includes a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

Comparative Poll Results

A Public Policy Polling survey conducted with 557 registered voters from June 3-4 showed a tie between Hinson and Turek, each receiving 46% support. An Echelon Insights poll surveyed 337 likely voters from April 3-9, indicating Turek up by one point. A GBAO poll from March 10-16 reported Hinson leading 47% to 43% among 1,200 likely voters.

Prediction Markets Favor Hinson

Despite some polls showing Turek ahead, prediction markets favor Hinson. According to Kalshi, she had a 58% chance, and Polymarket assigned her a 61% probability of winning in the upcoming November election. Market dynamics respond to various political factors, influencing probability estimates.

Candidates’ Backgrounds

Ashley Hinson has served northeastern Iowa in Congress since 2021. Before her political career, she worked as a journalist. She gained national attention by flipping a competitive Democratic seat. She is endorsed by Trump in the race.

Josh Turek represents a southwestern Iowa district. He is an accomplished Paralympian, having participated in wheelchair basketball across four games. Turek appeals to moderate voters, including those supporting Trump.

Historical Political Shifts in Iowa

During the 2000s, Iowa was a battleground state. Obama carried Iowa by substantial margins in 2008 and 2012. Trump’s victories in 2016, 2020, and 2024 indicate a shift toward Republican preference among white working-class voters. Republicans’ focus is reducing the negative impact of tariffs on local farmers, with gas prices also presenting challenges due to international conflicts.

Forecasts classify Iowa as leaning Republican. Analysts Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman shifted Iowa’s status from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, noting Hinson’s cash advantage yet also pointing to tight Republican margins.

Democrats’ Senate Ambitions

Despite historical midterm losses by the party in the White House, Democrats aspire to reclaim the House of Representatives. The Senate race requires flipping four GOP-held seats for Democratic control. Focus areas include North Carolina, Maine, Georgia, and Michigan, with opportunities also in traditionally red states.

Overall, prediction markets suggest the Senate is likely to remain under Republican control, giving the GOP a 58% chance on Kalshi and 57% on Polymarket.